Second-Order Thinking

Look beyond the near-term, and also consider the consequences of your actions over the long-term.

I've been working on a concept with my kid for the past few months... and I figure if it's important enough to discuss with her, it's probably important enough to discuss here too. 🤣

This concept is called second-order thinking, and it's one of my favorite mental models: it's super simple, but it improves every decision you make if you adhere to it.

Let's share some definitions:

First-order thinking is when you make decisions based on a desire for immediate results.

Second-order thinking is when you look beyond the near-term, and also consider the consequences of your actions over the long-term.

When someone throws a tantrum, starts a fight, or has a public freakout, it's usually first-order thinking: they're reacting emotionally to what's happening in front of them without thinking about the long-term consequences.

It takes maturity and discipline to use second-order thinking and understand whether your behavior will truly serve your goals over the long-term. Yeah, throwing a tantrum because the barista got your order wrong might satisfy your emotional needs in the moment, but it also might get you banned from Starbucks.

The reason second-order thinking is so hard is because we need it the most when our emotions are running hot, and that's the hardest time to think rationally. It takes real discipline to recognize when you're getting too emotional to make a good decision, hold your tongue, and pause to reflect.

Lack of second-order thinking kills jiu-jitsu careers

You might be asking yourself what this concept has to do with jiu-jitsu. I'd respond: what doesn't it have to do with jiu-jitsu?

Most of the drama, blow-ups, and problems within the jiu-jitsu community appear to stem from poor emotional regulation and lack of second-order thinking. An angry blow-up might feel good in the moment, but could be something you regret for the rest of your life. I've seen so many jiu-jitsu careers ruined by a single poor decision.

The comedian Craig Ferguson says we must ask ourselves three questions before we say anything:

1. Does this need to be said?
2. Does this need to be said by me?
3. Does this need to be said by me now?
   
   

When you feel yourself getting carried away by a wave of emotions, pause and ask yourself these three questions. Unless you can answer YES to all three, shut up and wait until you've cooled down before you speak.

Then, think beyond what you want right now, and ask yourself what you want in the future. Use the 10-10-10 rule: before you do something you might regret, ask yourself how you will feel about your decision 10 minutes, 10 months, and 10 years from now.

Making enemies out of allies

Perhaps the most important aspect of second-order thinking is how it helps us build alliances and communities.

Today we live in a perpetually online world very different from what I grew up in. I maintain that human beings were not meant to be this connected. Our little monkey brains just can't handle it all.

But we're also living in a time when alliances and meaningful connections matter more than ever. And unfortunately, it's harder than ever before to build those connections.

Modern internet culture doesn't help. People on social media just can't wait to take a chunk out of someone publicly. Perhaps due to algorithmic rewards, we're incentivized to post our insults and hot takes.

This flies in the face of the most important leadership advice I ever got: Praise in public, criticize in private.

That angry comment you dropped on someone else's post might have only taken you a few seconds, and perhaps you forgot about it and moved on with your day... but the recipient didn't. They will remember it.

That's a friendship, a relationship, and an alliance that's now probably closed to you forever. It's a willful and unnecessary bridge burn that might not hurt you in a measurable way today, but given a track record of this behavior, it could eventually kill your reputation.

Jiu-jitsu is a hard industry to make money in. There are tons of great athletes and only so many dollars to spend between them. If you want to be respected in jiu-jitsu, the last thing you can afford is getting a reputation for being mouthy. It's much more valuable to seek out connection than a pointless argument.

It's easy to make enemies. It's a lot harder to make friends. I'm never impressed by people who rush to make enemies over minor things, especially in public. It reflects a lack of second-order thinking, a failure to consider the long-term consequences of your actions. From my experience, these people often wind up relegated to the bottom of the comments section, and rarely get far in jiu-jitsu and in life.

On the podcast:

• Ep. 405: Solving Procrastination, feat. Itamar Shatz

Further study:

• 10-10-10 Rule